Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 32.665977 35.175767 37.897582 41.089151 44.755925 48.870241 53.884203
2025-06-01 28.590532 31.854375 35.610006 40.319044 46.167568 53.339664 63.050464
2025-06-08 25.924017 29.468105 33.693820 39.219219 46.441792 55.862641 69.658280
2025-06-15 24.884540 28.817587 33.666832 40.271451 49.362276 62.019695 82.263809
2025-06-22 23.568133 27.660514 32.830797 40.090755 50.490692 65.753930 92.082378
2025-06-29 22.273854 26.409388 31.733231 39.390129 50.717631 68.089613 100.114541
2025-07-06 21.008744 25.101043 30.444686 38.273089 50.150967 69.026043 105.830983
2025-07-13 20.699620 25.020589 30.786737 39.479734 53.211108 76.345489 126.079717
2025-07-20 20.271455 24.742765 30.820213 40.211966 55.585972 82.923465 147.647440
2025-07-27 19.867070 24.466006 30.823727 40.879251 57.914521 89.883342 173.828690
2025-08-03 19.275220 23.892502 30.355875 40.757705 58.848496 94.277791 195.840509
2025-08-10 18.584086 23.144560 29.586579 40.087074 58.710542 96.393988 212.376350
2025-08-17 17.867939 22.353957 28.746695 39.297502 58.376714 98.282087 230.792261
2025-08-24 17.207622 21.618676 27.956180 38.538912 58.032353 100.139967 251.320097
2025-08-31 16.532693 20.834170 27.051060 37.521687 57.074040 100.349924 265.663987
2025-09-07 16.392425 20.818534 27.313605 38.498087 60.149317 111.351466 346.457955
2025-09-14 15.993991 20.404809 26.935472 38.330479 60.876421 116.465569 407.075152
2025-09-21 15.512771 19.850001 26.309671 37.680146 60.511352 118.450182 452.289852
2025-09-28 14.973860 19.191842 25.494329 36.642124 59.210853 117.426844 473.002310
2025-10-05 14.933367 19.277797 25.862527 37.763350 62.766135 132.359873 711.581959
2025-10-12 14.799509 19.215609 25.986729 38.442929 65.440737 145.816693 1091.729834
2025-10-19 14.658644 19.136080 26.076460 39.061700 68.075158 160.609653 1913.544407
2025-10-26 14.385381 18.842225 25.797498 38.949029 68.908725 168.925153 3107.434525